2024年2月18日发(作者：)

The impact of RMB appreciation

As the comprehensive strength of the national economy grows, the Chinese

currency, the Renminbi (RMB) began to appreciate. Effects of the RMB's

appreciation since July have been felt both domestically and abroad, and will become

even more significant with time. China should embrace the new opportunities that

appreciation has opened-up and allow more room for the national economy to grow in

the process of globalization.

People need to be aware that the appreciation of the RMB may have some less

desirable effects on economic growth in the short term. Currently, China's export

market still relies heavily on cheap labor to compete in the international market. As its

added value is low, the appreciation of the RMB will affect China's export and

consequently the overall growth rate of the national economy. However, there are also

many positive aspects to the appreciation of the RMB. In the long run, RMB

appreciation will generate more development opportunities. People will feel richer, it

will improve China's status and influence in the world economy and it will change the

commodity structure and the flow of investment. It will also have a significant

influence on the structure of domestic production resources.

First of all, it will accelerate industrial upgrading. In a market economy, the

fluctuation of the foreign exchange rate involves the international balance of incomes

and expenses and is an important price indicator. The appreciation of the RMB means

that the price of various domestic resources, especially land and labor, will go up in

relative terms and this will speed up necessary adjustments to the commodity mix and

domestic industry. RMB appreciation will gradually change the value of the

international and domestic markets. Domestic enterprises will rely more on sales to

the domestic market so that national economic growth is less dependent on export

demand and a more reasonable industrial structure will form.

Secondly, it will promote technical innovation. In many countries, technical

innovation relies primarily on a market mechanism which makes good use of price as

a lever. China's production process is enormously costly in terms of resources and

energy, and labor is too cheap. The appreciation of the RMB will cause an increase in

the domestic prices of such things as land and labor as well stimulate the demand for

innovation. Products for export must rely on technological innovation to be more

competitive internationally. In the domestic market, enterprises are also forced to

compete through technological innovation. Simply speaking, the appreciation of the

RMB will cause the formation of a market environment that is conducive to speeding

up technological innovation.

Thirdly, the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the people. On the one hand, it

will make imported products relatively cheaper. It will also be cheaper for Chinese to

travel abroad. This will increase consumption. On the other hand, it will push up the

market price of domestic financial assets, changing the financial market structure. If

other conditions don't change, Chinese people will feel richer as the value of their

money grows and further stimulates domestic demand. Of greater strategic

significance is the fact that the appreciation of the RMB will make the price Chinese

labor price higher.

RMB appreciation reflects the success of Chinese economic development after

reform and opening up. It is also an important turning point in China's social and

economic situation. The downsides to RMB appreciation shouldn't be

overemphasized. The fluctuation of the RMB is the result of changes to the current

economic structure and will have an important impact on the economic structure of

the future. Maintaining the status quo is short-sighted and will harm the long-term

interests of China. The best choice is to speed up the transformation of the economic

growth mode and adapt to the appreciation of RMB to make the most from the

process.

With the announcement of reforming the RMB exchange rate regime on July 21,

2005, great attention has been paid to the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s

trade. Since China being in the transition from pegging to a managed floating regime,

no existing approximate model and method can be utilized to investigate this question

directly. In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a study on this issue,

coupled with the introduction of the substituted valuables: Japanese yen and Euro

exchange rate. Our results show that RMB’s appreciation would not bring severe

effects on China’s trade in 2005; however, the possible sustained reduction of export

growth in 2006 should be paid more attention. It is also necessary and urgent to press

forward with the reform of RMB exchange rate regime, and put up the related

supporting policies to avoid such sudden fluctuation as the Japanese situation after

“Plaza Accord”.

The RMB exchange rate became a hot topic after the announcement of exchange

rate regime reform on July 21, 2005. The new regime, a managed floating exchange

rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of

currencies, allows RMB to rise by 2%, with a daily 0.3% trading band based on the

price of the previous day. With its rapid development, China’s economy has become

an increasingly important element in the global economic development and

integration. Against this backdrop, the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s

trade attract great attention.

Before this reform of RMB, there has emerged a vast theoretical literature

concentrated on the impacts of RMB’s revaluation. However, relatively little research

has been undertaken on the empirical analysis of this issue. Cyn-Young Park (2005),

an economist in Asian Development Bank, analyzed macroeconomic impact of a

“one-off ” appreciation of the RMB against the dollar using the Oxford Economic

Forecasting model. This work may shed light on the dynamics between global

imbalances and revaluation. The OEF model framework allows simulation analyses

based on the global econometric structure, which will provide some quantitative

results for the impacts of a revaluation on the concerned economies, such as the PRC,

Japan, US, and other Asian countries. The stability of equilibrium state may be

damaged when the regime shifts, which, however, cannot be studied in this model.

Zhang, a researcher in Chinese Academy of these results suggested that the impact of

a revaluation on China’s economy might change in the proportion of an appreciation’s

scale. In fact, in the short term, the reasonableness of this proportionate result should

be doubted.

The main body of existing literature, however, has so far mostly centered on

quantitative discussion describing the relation between trade and exchange rate. There

has been surprisingly little empirical work that focus on the exchange rate regime

shift, especially from pegging to the US dollar to a managed floating regime, No

existing appropriate model or method can be found to support this kind of research

directly. Therefore, some indirect methods should be experimented for studying this

issue with the substitute variables introduced.

In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a sensitivity analysis of

China’s trade to the appreciation of RMB. The first type of scenarios is a hypothetic

scenario being related with the current appreciation of RMB by 2%; while the second

one that belongs to the historical scenario is based on the historical event---the

Japanese yen’s variability after subscribing “Plaza Accord”.The remaining part of this

paper is organized as follows. The theory and method of scenario analyses are

introduced in Section 2. Models and their evaluation are outlined in Section 3.

Forecasting results from scenarios analyses are presented in Section 4.

Scenario analysis (Committee on the Global Financial System, 2000) is a kind of

stress testing which serves to estimate potential extreme losses of a portfolio value

and give helpful suggestions to the decision makers in risk management of a company

or a financial institution. Generally, scenario is a means to explore the future

economic situation, and identify what might happen and how an organization can act

or react upon future developments.

The RMB’s appreciation should undoubtedly generate extensive and far-reaching

implication for China’s economy, especially for exports. This research should be

based on establishing and testing econometric models. We establish the evaluatd

models for export and trading forms respectively. In the following empirical work,

these models are used in the scenario analysis of China’s trade. The sample data are

collected over the period from Jan. 2005. Data on export and import are taken from

China’s Customs Statistics. The exchange rate data are obtained from the University

of British Columbia’s website.

In this paper, the scenario analysis is used to analyze the effects of RMB’s

appreciation on China’s trade in 2005 and 2006. Our evidence shows that China’s

exports would continue to keep a strong increasing trend in the hypothetical scenario

being a one-off appreciation of 2%. Seen from the current situation about RMB, the

similar favorable results may be expected to occur if RMB exchange rate regime

would mark a sound operation. Therefore, we conclude that China’s eaports would

not be affected much by the current appreciation of RMB, and would keep an

increasing trend in 2005. On the other hand, despite the rapid development of China’s

exports which not only benefit from China’s strong economic development, but also

from the strong international competitiveness of export goods, there still exist the risk

due to the obvious sustained drop of growth in 2006, which may impede the rapid

growth of exports. Domestic demand should also be promoted to counteract the risk

from the fluctuation of international market.

By People's Daily Online; The author, Chen Feixiang, is the Director of the

Economic and Financial Deparment of Tongji University.

JEL Classification: C53, F17, F31

Key words: RMB’s appreciation, China’s trade, Scenario analysis

人民币升值的影响

因为中国的国民综合经济实力不断增长，中国的货币——人民币也开始升值。随着7月以来人民币升值的影响已在国内外被感受到，而且随着时间的推移将变得更加显著。中国应把握升值带来的新的机遇，允许更多的在全球化进程中国家经济增长的空间。

人们需要知道，人民币升值在短期内经济增长可能有一些不太理想的效果。目前，中国的出口市场仍然依赖大量廉价劳动力在国际市场上竞争。由于其附加值低，人民币升值将影响中国的出口，进一步影响到国民经济的整体增长速度。然而，人民币升值也有很多积极的方面。从长远来看，人民币升值将产生更多的发展机遇。人会感到更加富有，它会提高中国在世界经济中的地位和影响力，它会改变商品结构和投资的流动。在国内生产资源的结构方面，它也将有重大影响力。

首先，它将加快产业升级。在市场经济中，汇率的波动涉及到国际收支平衡，也是一个重要的价格指标。人民币升值意味着国内外各种资源的价格，特别是土地和劳动力，将会上升，而这加快必要的调整商品结构和国内同行业。人民币升值将逐步改变了国际和国内市场的价值。国内企业将更多地依靠国内市场的销售，使国家的经济增长是减少对依赖出口的需求，将形成一个较为合理的产业结构。

其次，它会促进技术创新。在许多国家，技术创新主要依靠市场机制，这使得利用好价格杠杆。中国的生产过程是极其浪费资源和能源，劳动力太便宜。人民币升值将导劳动力和土地等要素的国内价格的上升，以及刺激创新的需求。出口产品必须依靠技术创新，变得更具国际竞争力。在国内市场，企业也被迫通过技术创新竞争。简单地说，人民币升值将导致市场环境的形成，有利于加快技术创新。

第三，人民币升值将造福于人民。一方面，它将使进口产品相对便宜。这也将使中国人出国旅游便宜。这将增加消费。另一方面，将推动国内金融资产的市场价格，改变了金融市场的结构。如果其他条件不改变，中国人民将感到更加富裕，随着其货币价值的增长，并进一步刺激国内需求。更具战略意义的事实是，人民币升值将使中国的劳动力价格更高。

人民币升值，反映了改革开放后中国经济发展的成功。这也是在中国的社会和经济形势的重要转折点。不应过分强调人民币升值的缺点。人民币的波动是当前的经济结构变化的结果，将对未来的经济结构产生重要影响。维持现状是短视的，将损害中国的长远利益。最好的选择是加快经济增长方式的转变和适应人民币升值，从而在整个过程中获得最大收益。

在2005年7月21日，人民币汇率制度改革的公告中，高度重视已支付人民币升值对中国的贸易的影响。由于中国在过渡挂有管理的浮动汇率制度，没有现成的近似模型和方法可以利用直接调查这个问题。在本文中，情景分析技术是用来给在这个问题上的研究，再加上引进的替代贵重物品：日元和欧元的汇率。我们的研究结果表明，人民币升值不会在2005年对中国的贸易带来严重影响，然而，出口增长可能在2006年持续下降应该引起高度重视。推进人民币汇率制度的改革，并提出了相关的配套政策，以避免日本的情况，如“广场协议”后突然波动，这也是必要和迫切。

汇率制度改革后公布的汇率，特别是人民币汇率成为一个热门话题。2005年7月21日，新的汇率制度——有管理的浮动汇率制度，根据市场供求和参考一篮子货币的需求，在每天交易0.3％的基础上，允许人民币上升2％。随着中国经济快速发展，汇率已成为全球经济发展和一体化的日益重要的元素。在此背景下，人民币升值对中国的贸易的影响引起高度重视。

在此之前，人民币的改革，已经出现了广大的理论文献集中在人民币升值的影响。然而，相对较少的研究已经进行对这一问题的实证分析。 CYN青年公园（2005年），利用牛津经济预测模型的“一次性”升值的宏观经济影响，在亚洲开发银行的经济学家进行分析人民币对美元。这项工作会有助于理解全球经济失衡及重估之间的动态曲线。 OEF模型框架允许仿真分析，基于对全球计量经济结构，这将提供一些定量的结果，对有关经济体，如中国，日本，美国，和亚洲其他国家受到人民币升值的影响。但是，不能在这个模型中研究平衡状态的稳定性，因为制度的转变可能会损坏。在这些成果中中国科学院研究员认为，人民币升值对中国经济的影响可能会改变升值的规模比例。事实上，在短期内，这一比例结果的合理性应该被怀疑。

但是，到目前为止，现有文献的主体大多集中讨论贸易和汇率之间的关系的定量描述。一直有一点令人惊讶的工作经验，即没有现成的合适的模型或方法。我们应重点对汇率制度的转变，特别是从盯住美元的有管理的浮动制度，可以发现直接支持这方面的研究。一些间接的方法应尝试推出替代变量研究这个问题。

在本文中，情景分析技术被用来给出一个中国的贸易人民币升值的敏感性分析。第一种类型的场景，是一个假设的情景，与目前的2％人民币升值有关，而第二个属于历史场景，基于对历史事件签署“广场协议”后日元的变异。本文其余部分安排如下：情景分析的理论和方法，介绍了在第2节。模型和他们的评价是在第3节所述。从情景分析的预测结果是在第4节。

情景分析（全球金融体系委员会，2000年）的压力测试是一种可以用来估计潜在的极端损失的投资组合价值和公司风险管理的决策者或金融机构提供有益的建议。一般来说，场景是一个手段，探索未来的经济形势，并确定可能会发生什么和如何组织可以根据未来发展的行动或反应。

人民币升值无疑对中国经济产生广泛和深远的意义，尤其是出口，应该在研究的基础上建立和测试计量经济模型。我们分别建立了出口和贸易形式的评价模型。在下面的实证研究中，对这些模型在中国的贸易情况分析且收集了从2005年1月期间的样本数据。从中国的海关统计出口和进口数据的汇率数据来自不列颠哥伦比亚省大学的网站。

在本文中，使用情景分析来分析人民币升值对中国的贸易在2005年和2006年的影响。我们的证据表明，中国的出口将继续保持强势增长趋势，在假设情景，一次性升值2％。约合人民币从目前的情况看，类似有利的结果，预计可能发生，如果人民币汇率制度将标志着一个稳健经营。因此，我们得出结论，中国的出口将不会受到影响目前人民币升值，2005年将保持上升趋势。另一方面，尽管中国的出口这不仅造福中国的强劲经济发展，而且还从的强劲出口货物的国际竞争力发展迅速仍然存在，在2006年因到了明显的增长持续下降的风险，这可能阻碍出口的快速增长。促进国内需求，也应抵制从国际市场波动的风险。

人民日报，作者，陈飞翔，同济大学金融经济系主任。

JEL分类：C53，F17，F31

关键词：人民币升值，中国的贸易，情景分析