2024年4月23日发(作者：)

Module 2

1 Forecast

Task 1.1 Analyze market conditions

1. Economics

1) Economy types



Centralized economy



Free-enterprise capitalistic economy



Pure market economy



Closed economy



Mixed economy

2) Global markets



Protectionism: government interfere with free flow



Embargo, quota, tariff, government subsidies,

dumping



Absolute advantage: one can produce a unit with less

resources or only one country has the resources



Interest rate causes long-term forecast (demand)

change

3) Business cycles



High point before downturn



Recession



Recession trough



Recovery



Expansion

4) Transportation growth

5) Economic indicators



Leading

 Bond yields 债券收益率

 No. of building permits

 Money supply

 Inventory level changes

 Average weekly hours of production workers

 Changes in stock prices

 No. of unemployment insurance claims

 Index of consumer expectation



ISM’s Report On Business (leading)

 Measure month-over-month change

 Manufacturing report (PMI)

 New orders

 Production/business activity

 Employment

 Supplier deliveries

 Inventories

 Customer’s inventories

 Non-manufacturing report (NMI)

 Prices

 Backlog of orders (积压)

 New export orders

 Imports

 Inventory sentiment



Lagging

 Labor costs

 Business spending

 Prime interest rates

 Inventory book value

 Outstanding bank loans

 Unemployment rates



Coincident

 Personal income

 Non-agricultural employment

 Industrial production

6) Governmental policies

7) Political stability/instability

8) World industrial migration

9) Import/export issues

Free trade: uninhibited flow

10) Environmental

2. Market analysis

1) Porter’s Five Forces

2) SWOT

3) Benchmark

4) RFI

5) Supplier research

3. Supply complexity vs. impact

1

1) Evaluate market



Competition



Geographical dispersion



Cooperation from suppliers

2) Sourcing strategy

Supply risk

Bottleneck (critical)

Routine (tactical)

Strategic

Leverage

Profit impact

6) Economic indexing

(current-prior)/prior x 100%

7) GDP

 Finished goods and services produced within a

country

 Purchased by households and governments, not

industry purchases

8) GNP (Gross National Product)

Produced anywhere by its agencies and organizations

4. Analytical skills

……………………………………………………………………………………

Task 1.2 Develop forecasts

1. Types of forecasting

1) Quantity

2) Industry capacity and availability

3) Cost or price

4) Technology

5) Planning

6) Assuring supply

2. Economic terms

1) Price indices



PPI (Producer Price Index)

 Price received by domestic producers

 Predict price inflation



CPI (Consumer Price Index)

 Price inflation of retail goods and services

 Lagging indicator



Implicit Price Deflator

 Nominal/Real GDP

2) Interest rates

3) Economic indicators

4) Inflation/deflation

5) Capacity utilization

9) Balance of trade

export– import

10) Balance of payments

Balance of trace + capital account

11) Exchange rates

 Float between parameters established by central

banks

3. Data sources

1) ISM Report on Business

2) Government publications

GPO (Government Printing Office)

3) Private publications

4) Commercially prepared information

5) Regional surveys

6) International historical data

7) Industry sources

8) Online indices and search engines

4. Forecasting methodologies

1) Short-term vs. long-term

2) Macro vs. micro

3) Delphi method 专家法



Opinion-based with experts



Kept apart and written response



Receive all other responses, revise their responses



Develop a consensus

4) Correlation/regression analysis

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