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While some forecasting methods had limited SUCCESS

predicting the 1997 E1 Nino a few months in advance, the

Columbia University researchers say their method can

predict large E1 Nino events up to two years in advance.

That would be good news for governments, farmers and others

seeking to plan for the droughts and heavy rainfall that E1

Nino can produce in various parts of the world.

Using a puter the researchers matched sea-surface

temperatures to later E1 Nino ourrences between 1980 and

2000 and were then able to anticipate E1 Nino events dating

back to1857, using prior sea-surface temperatures. The

results were reported in the latest issue of the journal

Nature.

The researchers say their method is not perfect, but

Bryan C. Weare. a meteorologist at the University of

California, Davis, who was not involved in the work, said

"itsuggestsE1 Nino is indeed predictable."

"This will probably convince others to search around

more for even better methods."said Weare. He added that the

new methodmakes it possible to predict E1 Nino at long lead

times. Other models also use sea-surface temperatures, but

they have not looked as far back because they need other

data, which is only available for recent decades, Weare

said.

The ability to predict the warming and cooling of the

Pacitic is of immense importance. The 1997 E1 Nino, for

example, caused an estimated$20 billion in damage worldwide,

offset by beneficial effects in other areas, said David

Anderson, of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather

Forecasts in Reading, England. The 1877 E1 Nino, meanwhile,

coincided with a failure of the Indian monsoon and a famine

that killed perhaps 40 million in India and China,

prompting the development of seasonal forecasting, Anderson

said.

When E1 Nino hit in 1991 and 1997,200 million people

were affected by flooding in China alone, aording to a xx

United Nations report.

While predicting smaller E1 Nino events remains tricky,

the ability to predict larger ones should be increased to

at least a year if the new method is confirmed.

E1 Nino tends to develop between April and June and

reaches its peak between December and February. The warming

tends to last between 9 and 12 months and ours every two to

seven years.

The new forecasting method does not predict any major

E1 Nino events in the next two years,although a weak

warming toward the end of this year is possible.

1. The method used by the Columbia University

researchers can predict E1 Nino a few months in advance.

A. Right

B. Wrong

C. Not mentioned

2. The Columbia University researchers studied the

relationship between the past EI Nino ourrences and sea-

surface temperatures.

A. Right

B. Wrong

C. Not mentioned

3. The Columbia University researchers are the first to

use sea-surface temperatures to match the past EI Nino

ourrences.

A. Right

B. Wrong

C. Not mentioned

4. Weare's contribution in predicting E1 Ninowas highly

praised by other meteorologists.

A. Right

B. Wrong

C. Not mentioned