2024年4月11日发(作者：电脑突然上不了网)
新概念第四册课文翻译及学习笔记Lesson14
新观点第四册课文翻译及学习笔录
Lesson14
【课文】
First listen and then answer the following question.
听录音，而后回答以下问题。
Why do small errors make it impossible to predict
the weather system with a high degree of accuracy?
Beyond two or three days, the world's best weather
forecasts are speculative, and beyond six or seven they
are worthless.
The Butterfly Effect is the reason. For small pieces of
weather -- and to a global forecaster, small can mean
thunderstorms and blizzards -- any prediction deteriorates
rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply, cascading
upward through a chain of turbulent features, from dust
devils and squalls up to continent-size eddies that only
satellites can see.
The modern weather models work with a grid of points of
the order of sixty miles apart, and even so, some starting data
has to be guessed, since ground stations and satellites cannot
see everywhere. But suppose the earth could be covered with
sensors spaced one foot apart, rising at one-foot intervals all the
way to the top of the atmosphere. Suppose every sensor gives
perfectly accurate readings of temperature, pressure, humidity,
and any other quantity a meteorologist would want. Precisely at
noon an infinitely powerful computer takes all the data and
calculates what will happen at each point at 12.01, then 120.2,
then
新概念第四册课文翻译及学习笔记Lesson14
The computer will still be unable to predict whether
Princeton, New Jersey, will have sun or rain on a day one
month away. At noon the spaces between the sensors will hide
fluctuations that the computer will not know about, tiny
deviations from the average. By 12.01, those fluctuations
will already have created small errors one foot away. Soon
the errors will have multiplied to the ten-foot scale, and so
on up to the size of the globe.
JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
【New words and expressions
生词和短语】
forecast n.
预告
推测的
speculative adj.
blizzard n.
deteriorate v.
multiply v.
狂风雪
变坏
增添
cascade v.
瀑布似地落下
turbulent adj.
dust devil
squall n.
狂暴的
小尘暴，尘旋风
狂风
eddy n.
旋涡
grid n.
sensor n.
humidity n.
坐标方格
传感器
温度
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